Football handicapping, an art in its own right, hinges on three pivotal pillars: trends, statistics, and situations. While some might refer to these as fundamental or technical handicapping, it’s more intuitive to term them as trend-based, statistical, and situational handicapping.
Each handicapper may gravitate towards a particular method, but blending multiple techniques often yields the best results. Let’s delve deeper into these three core methods.
1. Trend-Based Handicapping
As the name suggests, this approach capitalizes on trends to guide selections. It’s crucial to differentiate trends from systems, as the latter falls under situational handicapping.
Simply put, trend-based handicapping focuses on a specific team’s historical performance in various scenarios. For instance, Team A consistently performs well as a home favorite against a conference opponent, or Team B consistently outperforms Team C. While some handicappers swear by trends, others, like myself, consider them secondary.
2. Statistical Handicapping
This method is the haven for data enthusiasts. It emphasizes number-driven selections, relying on a plethora of statistics. These range from traditional metrics like points scored or conceded to more niche ones tailored for bettors, such as average yards per pass attempt or points per 100 yards.
By emphasizing quantitative data, statistical handicapping minimizes subjectivity in decision-making. Though I once predominantly identified as a statistical handicapper, my inclination has since shifted towards situational handicapping.
3. Situational Handicapping
Situational handicapping encompasses broader patterns, focusing on how teams generally fare in specific situations. It’s akin to system handicapping but emphasizes league-wide trends rather than individual team trajectories. For instance, how does a league perform when a certain team is an underdog?
This method reduces personal biases, as it often leads bettors to side with teams that statistically thrive in particular situations. In contrast, trend-based handicapping demands bettors to discern if a team’s past success against another warrants a bet.
Adapting to the Game
Football handicapping is dynamic. As the game evolves, so must the handicapper. Those resistant to change often find themselves at a disadvantage. To stay ahead, it’s vital to continually refine your techniques and consider integrating diverse handicapping elements. After all, in the world of betting, every edge counts.