Whenever we roll out a fresh baseball betting strategy, rest assured that it undergoes rigorous back-testing for accuracy. Typically, our baseline starts from the 2008 or 2009 season, extending through the 2012 season.
Although this span of a few years might seem relatively short, one should consider the breadth of a baseball season. It’s double the duration of either the NBA or NHL seasons and dwarfs the NFL season tenfold. Thus, evaluating a baseball strategy across three years is comparable to examining a basketball system for six years or a football approach for 30, considering the sheer volume of games.
Those familiar with our systems might recall a nod to the 2009 season being an outlier, where favorites notched wins unusually often. This anomalous season tends to skew the efficiency of many underdog systems. Our focal point remains the outcomes of contemporary games rather than anomalies from the past.
Diving Into New Systems
- Backing Favorites Post Limited Stranding
The Strategy: Bet on any favorite when the opposing team left three or fewer runners stranded in its preceding game. The prior game could involve either the same or a different competitor. The Record: From 2009 onwards, the system holds a 247-134 record, generating a profit of 42.72 units with an average lay price of -154.
Yearly Breakdown:- 2009: 111-52 (+32.60 units)
- 2010: 114-66 (+11.43 units)
- 2011: 22-16 (-1.31 units) Insight: While 2009 was exceptionally profitable, 2010 was commendable, and 2011 had a slower start. Bettors should discern if this trend will reverse in the upcoming season. Caution and observation are advisable before placing bets.
- Supporting Underpriced Home Underdogs After a Narrow Loss
The Strategy: Bet on any home team that’s an underdog priced less than +150, particularly if their starting player lost the previous game by a sole run. The Record: Commencing from 2009, the strategy shows an 81-78 record, accruing a profit of 19.42 units. A system favoring underdogs, hovering around the 50% win mark, is inherently valuable.
Yearly Breakdown:- 2009: 27-39 (-720 units)
- 2010: 41-29 (+2136 units)
- 2011: 13-10 (+526 units) Insight: This strategy’s trajectory differs, underperforming in 2009, excelling in 2010, and starting 2011 positively. The first system banked on the aberration of 2009, relying on extended results, while the second system thrived in recent times.
Making the Call
Between the two, if I were to forecast which would profit in the coming months, I’d gravitate towards the latter, given its recent performance. However, the realm of sports betting is laden with variables and unpredictability. If one definitive, foolproof strategy existed, the charm of the game would dwindle, and everyone would be a winner. Betting remains an intricate blend of analysis, instinct, and a dash of luck.