Determining the length of one’s betting experience is often as simple as asking about their desired winning percentage. Newcomers to sports gambling might aim for a win rate of 60% or even higher. However, seasoned bettors recognize the value of a consistent 55%. Over time, maintaining a 55% win rate can generate profit, which is an accomplishment for most in the sports betting world.
This serves as a reminder: never disregard the potential of a 55% advantage. If you identify a game where there’s a 55% likelihood of covering the point spread, it’s worth considering. At a minimum, you should avoid betting against such odds.
An enduring strategy, with a success rate surpassing 55%, is to bet on NFL road teams during their second or third consecutive away game, specifically if they were defeated in their preceding away match.
Throughout an NFL season, teams often face consecutive road games once to three times. Rare instances of three sequential road games might arise due to venue scheduling conflicts, like sharing a stadium with a baseball team.
There’s logic behind this trend: Winning on the road is challenging, yet even the underdog occasionally triumphs. Teams that lose one week are typically more driven in their subsequent away match. This resolve, combined with their recent loss, might grant them a point or two advantage in the upcoming point spread.
In contrast, teams victorious in their prior road game generally present a 50-50 proposition for their next away match. Hence, focusing on teams that experienced a recent loss can be strategic.
From 2006, teams fitting this description have achieved a 59.7% success rate, with a 43-29 record against the point spread. While some records suggest a 58.6% win rate over an extended period, our analysis will focus on post-2006 data. Notably, in 2007, the trend stood at 54.1% (20-17) and reached an impressive 19-10 in 2006. In 2008, it’s shown promise with a 4-2 record thus far.
Blindly following trends isn’t advisable. However, it’s also imprudent to ignore a trend with a solid track record. After all, avoiding a loss is as valuable as identifying a winner, especially considering the 10% bookmaker’s vigorish bettors must cover.
In conclusion, when evaluating road teams coming off a defeat, approach with caution. If your other analysis aligns, this trend might just give you one more reason to place your bet confidently.