The introduction of the bye week by the NFL, extending the season for television ratings, met with varied opinions initially. Today, however, the bye week is a standard fixture in the NFL season, accepted and anticipated by fans across the board.
For bettors, the bye week initially posed challenges. It introduced an additional variable in handicapping and disrupted many established betting systems, given that teams sometimes faced opponents having played a different number of games.
Over time, bettors adapted, seeking ways to leverage the bye week for potential advantages. Several trends emerged that could offer bettors a slight edge. Here are some notable ones:
1. Betting on a Winless Team Post-Bye as an Underdog: Take the instance when the St. Louis Rams journeyed to Washington on Oct. 12, 2008. A surge of late bets favored the Rams. Though the Redskins started the week favored by 13.5 points, they closed at many sportsbooks as 11.5-point favorites. Despite the Rams’ lackluster performance throughout the season, they conformed to a compelling 17-2 trend: Bet on a winless team from the fifth week onward, post-bye, when they’re underdogs. The Rams vindicated their bettors, clinching a surprise 19-17 victory.
When evaluating such a trend, it’s essential to assess its logic. In this scenario, a winless team, eager for its inaugural victory, is likely to exert extra effort. Moreover, the added week amplifies the pressure and scrutiny from coaches and media, spurring the team to perform better.
2. Favoring a Team by 6.5 Points or More Pre-Bye: This trend boasts a 31-7 record against the point spread. However, it had a tepid 1-2 start in 2008. It’s rooted in a simple insight: NFL players generally dislike extended practices. Delivering a strong performance pre-bye might afford them a breather from rigorous coaching, and potentially, some additional rest days.
Other noteworthy trends include betting on undefeated favorites post-bye or supporting underdogs with a spread of seven points or more pre-bye. These have demonstrated reliability over the years and deserve attention.
However, it’s vital for bettors to exercise judgment rather than mechanically following trends. While trends can be informative, especially for borderline bets, they shouldn’t overshadow personal analysis or deter bets on opposing teams.
The bye week also offers bettors an extra week of wagering opportunities. So, if a game doesn’t seem promising, it’s wise to hold back – the season is filled with myriad betting prospects.