In the dynamic world of basketball, varying game frequencies between the NBA and NCAA showcase distinct effects on player performance. One critical element that warrants attention is the frequency of games in a week.
The Weekly Grind: NBA vs. NCAA
While most NCAA teams play two to three games a week, it’s not uncommon for NBA teams to engage in four or sometimes even five games within the same time frame. This intensity shapes the resilience and adaptability of the players. NBA players tend to adapt more seamlessly to this hectic pace due to their extensive exposure to long seasons. In contrast, college basketball teams occasionally falter when the frequency of their games exceeds their usual pace.
Such challenges are even more pronounced when two college teams, unaccustomed to shorter rest periods, face off against each other. This observation is particularly relevant for high-scoring games, i.e., those with a posted over/under of 150 points or above.
Zooming In: Short Rest Defined
For the purpose of this discussion, ‘short rest’ refers to college teams that play their subsequent game either the very next day or after just a one-day break. This essentially means they get no more than a day’s rest between games.
The Under-Betting System
Our focus revolves around games where both NCAA teams are on short rest, and the game’s projected total score exceeds 150 points. The strategy suggests betting on these games to finish ‘under’ the predicted total. This analysis pertains exclusively to regular season games, sidelining post-season tournaments which often feature back-to-back contests.
Data from the 2008-09 season onwards demonstrates a promising 57.6% win rate (80-59-1) when betting ‘under’ in such situations.
Breaking down the results further:
- For games with totals between 150 to 154.5: The record stands at 51-37-1.
- For those between 155 to 159.5: The record is 19-22.
- And for games with totals of 160 and above: It’s 3-7.
The 150 to 154.5 total range emerged as the most profitable, yielding a profit of 10.3 units with a 58% success rate. Although games in the 155 to 159.5 range registered the lowest performance, they still maintained an above-average win rate of 53.7%. Interestingly, the 160-and-over group, despite its limited data points, boasted the highest win percentage.
The Selective Betting Approach
For bettors seeking a higher win rate with fewer bets, one could focus exclusively on games with totals exceeding 160. Since the 2008-09 season, such games with both teams on short rest recorded a 3-7 win-loss, where ‘under’ bets won 70% of the time. Delving deeper into history, from the 2006-07 season, the record stands at 14-29, marking a 67.4% success rate for the ‘under’ bet.
This betting trend seems consistent even when analyzed over longer durations. Data tracing back to the 1997-98 season indicates a consistent performance, with the ‘under’ bet achieving a commendable 62.7% win rate with a record of 28-47-1.
Conclusion
The influence of short rest periods on college basketball game outcomes, especially in high-scoring predictions, presents intriguing insights for bettors. Recognizing these patterns can guide informed betting decisions, leveraging historical data and trends for optimal results.