When delving into baseball totals betting, savvy comparisons can be pivotal. While many sportsbooks often display similar lines early on, variations can crop up as game time nears due to influxes of bets and subsequent book adjustments.
Adjusting Odds vs. Adjusting Numbers
Baseball totals have a unique feature; sportsbooks typically modify the odds before tinkering with the actual number. For instance, a total might open at 9.5, and with increased action on the over, rather than moving straight to 10, odds might shift, such as from 9.5o-120. Beyond a certain point, like -125, sportsbooks usually opt for number adjustments, e.g., 10u-120.
A Real-World Illustration
Consider a match: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels on June 21, aired on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball. While many books had the total at 8.5o-120, some offered 9u-120.
Deciphering the Right Bet
Bettors must navigate this maze of options. It mirrors the act of buying points in basketball or football, where better numbers come at a cost. For instance, with the Angels game, betting under 9u-120 can mean a push at 9 runs, unlike an under 8.5 even-money bet that would lose.
On the other side, betting over 8.5 at -120 guarantees a win at 9 runs, but betting over 9 offers just a push. The dilemma? Determining if the additional 20-cent risk for over 8.5 is worthwhile or sticking to over 9 at even money is better.
Considering the Value
Although only a half-run separates these totals, winning demands a full-run leap. Thus, the actual value when betting over 8.5, instead of over 9, exceeds merely a half-run. In football and basketball, buying half a point might cost an extra 10 cents. But given baseball’s lower-scoring nature, securing that half-run should theoretically be pricier, though that wasn’t the case in our example.
Final Thoughts
More often than not, it’s prudent for bettors to fork out the -120 to secure the superior number. When the stakes involve the difference between a push and a loss or even a push and a win, leaning toward the better number usually pays off. While there might be marginally higher losses on some wagers, the potential uptick in wins, especially for those adept at handicapping baseball totals, should balance the scales.