This article was inspired by a piece on public betting in college basketball, initially presented by Sports Insights.
In their research, which can be explored in detail on the Sports Insights platform, they delve into the performance of favorites leading by six points or more against the point spread based on the percentage of wagers they’re receiving.
Generally, the results indicated that the higher the percentage of bets a favorite receives, the less likely they are to cover the point spread.
For instance, favorites receiving 75% or more of the wagers only cover the spread about 46.1% of the time.
One significant criterion that Sports Insights implemented was that the game should have more bets than an average game, suggesting the public’s involvement. This data can be easily accessed on the Sports Insights website.
Understanding the Data
Many might quickly deduce that if the favorite covers the spread 46.1% of the time, it means the underdog covers it 53.9% of the time. And that’s accurate.
The real significance here, which is often overlooked, is twofold:
- Over the long run, a 53.9% success rate results in a flat-bet profit, surpassing the performance of 90 to 95% of sports bettors.
- A consistent system or trend that achieves such a rate is invaluable. It not only aids in successful wagers but also helps avoid losing bets, especially considering the additional 10% loss on a failed wager.
Understanding Winning Percentages
To simplify, let’s approximate our 53.9% to 54%. Assessing the value of such a trend can be better understood when we examine avoiding bets with only a 46% winning chance.
Consider this scenario: If you were to bet $110 on 100 games, winning 46 and losing 54, your net loss would amount to $1,340. Conversely, wagering on the opposing side for those 100 games, with 54 wins and 46 losses, would yield a profit of $340.
The real advantage emerges when a trend discourages those loss-incurring wagers. To gain a profit of $1,340, a bettor must win approximately 58.75% of their bets, a rare occurrence in sports betting.
Every dollar saved in sports betting equates to a dollar earned, influencing your bottom line identically.
In conclusion, not only will sidestepping college basketball favorites with six points or more, attracting high public bets save you money in the long run, but astute handicapping combined with seeking the best odds can also elevate that 53.9% winning percentage, thus enhancing your long-term profits.