Football stands out in the world of sports betting. Typically, the point spreads for upcoming matches are set almost a week in advance, affording bettors ample time to strategize. However, this lead time can be a double-edged sword for those wagering on NFL or college football games. The frustration of placing a bet early in the week, only to realize you could have gained an advantage by waiting, is all too familiar to many.
This sentiment intensifies if you lose by a narrow margin, while others who bet on the same side, but waited for a favorable point spread change, emerged victorious. Naturally, this brings us to the crux: How can one predict the direction of point spread movement?
While no method is foolproof, there are several indicators and patterns worth noting. We’ll delve into these, along with some insights to potentially tip the scales in our favor.
Early Bird Catches the Favorite
Generally, favorites see their odds rise as the week progresses. This is largely driven by public betting patterns. Hence, if you’re leaning toward the favorite, it’s often wise to place your bets early. A case in point is the Indianapolis Colts versus Cleveland game on Nov. 30, 2008. The Colts started as 4-point favorites but were bumped up to 5 or 5.5 points by game-time. Those who bet on the Colts early broke even, while late bettors incurred a loss.
While there are instances when the spread decreases as the week unfolds, more often than not, it escalates. This trend is particularly evident in high-profile NCAA football games.
Spotlight Teams and Prime Time Bets
Teams that deliver standout performances in nationally broadcasted games often see the point spread shift against them as the week progresses. For instance, an NFL team that clinches a remarkable win on Monday Night Football will likely catch the public’s eye. As the public predominantly bets later in the week, that’s when you can expect the most movement.
If you’re inclined towards a team coming off a stellar prime-time show, place your bets sooner rather than later. Similarly, big-name college football teams usually see heavier betting closer to game day. If you favor these teams, betting early is advisable.
Deciphering Public Betting Trends
Another strategy involves tracking early public betting inclinations and projecting them throughout the week. Platforms like The Spread or Sports Insights, coupled with popular football newsletters, can offer valuable insights. If prominent newsletters favor one side, odds are that side will see a surge in wagers, causing the odds to tilt against them.
The Weather Factor
Previously overlooked, weather is a crucial determinant. Adverse weather conditions can prompt some matches to have reduced betting limits, flagged with a generic “Potential Inclement Weather” tag. An astute bettor should be privy to weather forecasts, especially when betting on totals. If a game is slated to occur under harsh conditions, totals often drop a notch or two closer to game day. Hence, if you’re leaning towards the ‘under’, it’s best to bet earlier, ensuring you get the most favorable line.
In conclusion, while predicting line moves requires a blend of observation, experience, and intuition, honing this skill can inch you closer to consistent betting success.