Adapting to changing circumstances is vital in sports handicapping. Betting strategies and systems that yielded success years ago might not necessarily work today, which could explain why some bettors and sports services that flourished two decades ago now face challenges.
Take the Monday Night Home Underdog System in the NFL, for instance. Older bettors recall when home underdogs covered the spread in 110 out of 166 games from 1970 to 2000. The habit of automatically siding with the home team on Monday nights was widespread. However, this same system managed a mere 21-37 ATS record between 2001 and 2010, eroding the bankrolls of those who clung to old beliefs.
The NBA had a similar system, albeit not as popular as the Monday Night Underdog. Many bettors found success with this strategy: bet against any road favorite playing back-to-back road games. The logic? It’s challenging to secure consecutive road wins, especially with the fatigue factor. A tired team would often face a more motivated home underdog eager to impress their fans.
System’s Performance Between 2008-09 and 2010-11 Seasons
From the 2008-09 season, there’s been a shift. Road teams playing as favorites on consecutive nights went 58-42-1 ATS, negating the system’s initial premise. Bettors, rigid in their ways, lost 21.8 units in those three seasons.
Recent data also points towards a trend in totals. Games featuring back-to-back road favorites saw overs hit at a consistent 58% rate (58-42-1). One could argue that weary NBA teams might compromise on defensive effort, leading to higher-scoring games. When focusing on games with totals set at 200 or more, overs hit at a robust 65% rate (34-18-1), while road favorites went 32-20-1 ATS. When the bar is raised to a total of 210, the overs improved to 11-4.
Long-Term Analysis
To ensure the reliability of the data, I analyzed results starting from the 2000-01 NBA season. Our road favorites in back-to-back situations posted a 161-172-8 ATS record. Meanwhile, totals stood at 179-159-3, slightly favoring the over, but not as significantly as the recent 58% rate.
Delving deeper with higher total filters, road favorites in this context stood at 54.2% ATS (66-55-4). Totals exceeded expectations, recording an impressive 59.3% rate for the over (73-50-1). With a base total of 210 or higher, both road favorites and overs performed commendably.
Conclusion and Recommendations for Future Seasons
For the upcoming NBA seasons, consider the strategy of backing the over when a team is a road favorite on consecutive nights, especially if the total is 200 or higher. If the total reaches 210 or above, consider amplifying your wager. The road favorite, though secondary to the over, also deserves attention. Observing these trends could provide valuable insights and profitable opportunities in the future NBA seasons.